How to read the FOMC minutes and press conference

An FOMC decision is not a single document but a three-layer communication: the policy statement and the Fed Chair's press conference come out on the same day, while the meeting minutes follow three weeks later. The rate decision itself is often priced in beforehand; what really moves markets are the clues these texts give about future decisions.

The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the body that sets interest rates at the Fed, the US central bank, and it holds eight scheduled meetings a year. Because the dollar is the world's main reserve currency, its decisions ripple through many markets, from stocks to crypto.

Three documents, three different timings

2:00 p.m. Eastern Time corresponds to 18:00 UTC while the US is on daylight saving time and 19:00 UTC the rest of the year. Since the crypto market trades around the clock, it reacts instantly at these times too.

At four meetings a year (March, June, September and December), the statement is accompanied by the dot plot, which shows officials' economic projections and rate expectations. This article focuses on the texts themselves.

The statement: a word-by-word comparison

The statement is short and largely resembles the previous meeting's text. So the market does not read the whole thing; it reads what changed. Analysts compare the new statement with the previous one line by line.

Points to watch in the statement:

• Rate decision: The target range for the policy rate. If it matches expectations, it has little effect on its own.
• Assessment of the economy: Even small wording changes, such as "inflation remains elevated" turning into "somewhat elevated," can be read as a hint of a shift in direction.
• Forward guidance: Signals about the next steps.
• Vote breakdown: Members who dissent are named, along with their preferred action. More dissents signal growing disagreement inside the committee.

The press conference: tone and answers

Half an hour after the statement, the Fed Chair reads prepared remarks and then takes questions from reporters. The session usually runs for about an hour.

The press conference matters because topics that are not in the statement get opened up here. An answer such as "every option is on the table at the next meeting" or "we are not there yet" can be a stronger signal than the statement itself. The market also weighs the Chair's tone, which risks get emphasized and which questions get sidestepped.

Consider a hypothetical sequence: the decision matches expectations, and a softer phrase in the statement lifts Bitcoin 2% in the first minutes. At the press conference the Chair answers a question with "our work on inflation is not done," and price pulls back 3% within the hour. By the end of the day the net move is negative. That is why the first minutes' reaction is not the day's final verdict.

The minutes: the detail that arrives three weeks later

The minutes are a detailed, anonymous summary of what was discussed at the meeting. Since the decision is already known, they are usually received more calmly; but if they reveal that the committee is thinking differently from the market about next steps, they can trigger a sharp reaction. For example, the minutes of the December 2021 meeting, released in early January 2022, showed the Fed discussing shrinking its balance sheet sooner than expected, and both stocks and cryptocurrencies fell noticeably that day.

Useful clues when reading the minutes:

• Quantity words: No names appear; instead the text uses terms like "a few," "several," "many" and "most." The difference between "a few participants" and "most participants" shows whether a view is held by a minority or a majority.
• Participants versus members: "Participants" refers to all officials at the meeting, voting or not, while "members" refers only to those with a vote.
• New agenda items: When a topic that never came up before, such as balance sheet policy, starts being discussed, it can be the first sign of decisions months away.
• Balance of risks: Whether the committee is more worried about risks on the inflation side or on the growth and employment side.

Full word-for-word transcripts of the meetings are released only after five years and are mostly used for historical research.

How markets react

The market prices not the decision itself but how far it deviates from expectations. If a rate cut is expected and a cut arrives, that is not "news"; a bigger-than-expected cut or an unexpected change in wording is.

When following this three-layer flow, the following sequence helps:

1. Before the meeting, find out what the market expects.
2. Compare the statement with the previous one.
3. See whether the press conference supports or reverses the first reaction.
4. Three weeks later, check whether the minutes change that picture.

In the Sezga terminal, the Fed/FOMC countdown and the probabilities that prediction markets assign to the rate decision show expectations ahead of the meeting, and the economic calendar lists the release date of the minutes. Event memory records what price did 5 minutes, 1 hour and 24 hours after a news item, which makes it possible to compare reactions to the statement, the press conference and the minutes separately.

Key takeaways

• FOMC communication has three layers: the statement (2:00 p.m. ET), the press conference (2:30 p.m.) and the minutes three weeks later.
• What matters in the statement is what changed from the previous text; dissents are also a strong signal.
• The press conference can amplify or reverse the first reaction; the first minutes are not the summary of the day.
• In the minutes, quantity words such as "a few," "many" and "most," along with new agenda items, offer clues.
• Markets react not to the decision itself but to the gap between the decision and expectations.